Mark, there's much passion in the descriptions and analysis of yours. Big respect there, but I have to point out some things to maybe think about.
I think that the basic "flaw" in this survey is that you've measured flight sim forum users and their preferences, leaving out the guys which are buying boxes or downloads and never even attend to forums of this kind, especially not any surveys there.
The scientific mind in me will also explain you that any survey with the approach 'to find out more about the flight sim usage and the usage bias' will trigger the smaller group (FS9 users) to attain the thing (to get regarded some more) while the bigger one will mostly remain calm = not attend, leading to more input from the smaller group.
Any survey requiring some will (and may it be only a click) to participate will show you results with a bias from the "willing" people. As the smaller group of FS9 users is willing to gain attraction and also willing to 'show their market numbers', they will attend in larger numbers.
All the guys which don't care or are very happy with the current FSX market therefore have a much lesser will to click here and there to show their opinion.
Ask people about human rights and what they think about their need and basis. If you ask them on the street (by going to them, using the mic while they are e. g. shopping), you will get answers, if you set up a website, you will get those too but now the focus changes since people have to go to that site, have to click, have to type something. They need a will to participate, they didn't need it as you were actively asking them.
So while the first "active" asking shows you some real numbers with many 'I don't care' or 'I don't know' in it, that website will give you some 'they are so important!' outcome.
Catch my drift?
The devs making up a decision whether to go FS9/FSX or FSX are looking at overall numbers from the actual sales of previous products. Those numbers represent what money can be expected and what trend may build up, while the forums represent the fan view and some bias towards the more established products.
If the sales numbers on FS9 products point down, nobody will try to revive that market more than once.
You don't plan new car concepts or electronics by the answers of some special group (forum members) in an already small market, you do so by looking at the former sales and maybe take into account what your fans stated as a wish, checking it's feasibility then.
You don't sell things to fans only, you have to attract new customers and also make sure that all the normal ones (which will outnumber the fans easily) still choose your next product.
If a development for FS9 wouldn't eat up resources, it could be easily made and and sold. But this downgrade path (when coming from a native FSX concept) isn't that easily to achieve and therefore the devs sum up the costs of extra development time and the expected sales in that regime.
Most current ones came to the conclusion that FS9 therefore doesn't pay off for them, especially on the aircraft side. The scenery side looks a bit better though.
So, in my eyes, the rather simple approach to just look at some 1000 forum flight sim fans won't lead to a picture of a market. And the decisions from the big devs to leave FS9 behind show you that they are looking at the vital numbers there, the ones which form their business and outcome.
Since that whole 'please do some FS9 versions!' thing isn't new, you may look into this or that dev's forum to see some explanations, mentioning those real numbers I spoke of, defining the outcome on the devs side. They have to live with that money since the love of their fans alone doesn't pay their bills.
Some exceptions are on the market of course but they only stress the existing rule that aircraft development for FS9 has nearly come to an end as the sales don't represent that fan bias at all.
CS is a current company, having switched over quite some time ago and, obviously, being very successful with that switching while most customers will be too, as seen.
Quote:but at nearly 40% market share
when talking about FS9 therefore won't represent sales, but fan numbers only.
There are some current FS9/FSX titles on the market and they don't reflect those 40% you are speaking of, in sales.
Quote:Thanks to the AVSIM survey that is live and will be running ALL YEAR LONG through 2011, we have a glimpse at the market for flight simulator use and I thought it wise to share this with you.
Sorry, this "glimpse" offers the same reliable picture as asking the question about the average beer consumption, in a pub.
I think another (mainly scenery) dev pointed out somewhere that 'if the people stating in forums that FS9 (still) is the way to go would actually buy that stuff in the same numbers as they drop statements, we would have built them already'.
So if you collect enough FS9 fans here, right in the CS forums, and also make sure that those thousands than buy the FS9 version, CS will build one.